Climate Change Scenario for Bangladesh by using High Resolution AGCM
Rahman, Md. Mizanur1; Kitoh, Akio2; Kusunoki, Shoji2
1SAARC Mereeorological research Centre, BANGLADESH; 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, JAPAN
An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), called MRI-AGCM were adapted in generating rainfall and temperature for Bangladesh. At the first step, MRI-AGCM generated rainfall and temperature scenarios were calibrated with ground-based observed rainfall during baseline period (1979-2003) in Bangladesh. The regression coefficients obtained through calibration are utilized for validation of MRI-AGCM simulated rainfall during the period 2004-2006. In the second step, rainfall and temperature forecast for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for 2025-2034. MRI-AGCM simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application purposes. However, after calibration of AGCM model output, acceptable result was obtained in estimating annual rainfall in Bangladesh with correlation coefficient is 0.89. Change of rainfall is forecasted from -4.29 % (in 2030) to 1.18 % (2028) for Bangladesh during 2025 - 2034. Similarly, change of temperature is forecasted about 1.0 degree Celsius for the above period.